Thirsty Earth: ENSO and the Drought Crisis in South Africa’s Rural Areas

The United Nations Food agency has reported that months of drought in southern Africa, driven by the El Niño weather phenomenon, have had a devastating impact on over 27 million people, leading to the region’s worst hunger crisis in decades.

According to the World Food Program (WFP) spokesperson Thompson Fury, the situation could escalate into a full-scale human catastrophe as five African countries have already declared national disasters due to the drought and resulting hunger.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a complex weather phenomenon that significantly influences global climate patterns. It is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, causing widespread changes in precipitation, temperature, and extreme weather events worldwide.

El Niño occurs when the trade winds that usually blow from east to west along the equator weaken or reverse direction, allowing warm water from the western Pacific to move toward the eastern Pacific, displacing the cooler water typically present.

The opposite phase, known as La Niña, is marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same regions, leading to different weather effects, such as drought in the eastern Pacific and increased rainfall in the western Pacific.

Southern African countries have a history of experiencing significant impacts from El Niño events, with notable episodes recorded in 1982-1983, 1991-1992, 1997-1998, 2002-2003, 2015-2016, and 2018-2019. These events have triggered severe droughts, floods, and extreme temperatures, negatively affecting agriculture, livestock, and human livelihoods.

Nations such as South Africa, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Botswana, Namibia, Angola, Malawi, Eswatini, Lesotho, Tanzania, and Zambia have faced food shortages, water scarcity, and economic losses. For instance, the 2015-2016 El Niño event resulted in one of the worst droughts in recent history, impacting over 40 million people across the region.

The frequency and severity of El Niño occurrences have risen in recent decades, compounding existing developmental challenges in southern Africa. The region’s vulnerability to climate variability and change is exacerbated by factors such as poverty, inadequate infrastructure, and limited capacity for disaster preparedness and response, leading to devastating outcomes including increased food insecurity, displacement of communities, and loss of life.

The onset of October marks the beginning of the lean season in southern Africa, with each month expected to bring worsening conditions until the next harvest, anticipated in March or April. Five countries—Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe—have declared their hunger crises as states of disaster and have appealed for international humanitarian assistance.

Angola and Mozambique are also severely affected, with an estimated 21 million children in southern Africa now malnourished due to failed crops. Millions of people in the region rely on small-scale, rain-fed agriculture for food and income, making them particularly vulnerable to the impacts of drought.

Addressing the severe consequences of El Niño requires a focus on preparation, sustainability, and resilience. Governments and communities can mitigate the effects of droughts and floods through the implementation of early warning systems and emergency response plans. Investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, water harvesting, and conservation agriculture can help reduce vulnerability to climate-related events.

Transitioning to renewable energy, promoting reforestation, and adopting sustainable land use practices can help mitigate climate change impacts. Supporting farmers with climate-smart agricultural practices, drought-tolerant crops, and effective livestock management strategies is also crucial. Enhancing regional cooperation, securing international funding, and sharing technology can further aid adaptation efforts.

Improving climate forecasting, employing researchers for effective studies, and promoting climate education are essential measures to empower communities to better cope with El Niño’s effects, ultimately saving lives and preserving livelihoods.